Why Use the Phrase Radical Islam – Its So Simple

Over the last seven and a half years we’ve heard that it is wrong to use the phrase “radical Islam” and “radical Jihadist” from President Obama and people within the Obama administration. Last week we got a televised rant or temper tantrum from the “bully pulpit” of the president about his perspective on how ludicrous it is for people to use these phrases when describing terror attacks on the United States. I’ve bitten my tongue about this stupidity most every time he’s gone on the warpath about it, but I had an epiphany that explains it so simply that I had to share.

In order to wrap your mind around this concept, first you need to think like a coach. Let’s think like a high school football coach who is preparing for a weekly game. First, you want to prepare your team for the game. You want your team to win and you want to know as much about the challenger as possible. First you look at the schedule to see who you’re playing. You identify the team, you review the players, the coaches, their strategies, the plays they use against other teams – what works and what doesn’t, which players are the strongest and what are their weakenesses.

You do all these things not because you want a participation ribbon at the end of the day – but because you want to WIN. Your team and your fans want and NEED a win. Just like the US wants and NEEDS a win against the terrorists who threaten our way or life and our lives.

Any coach who doesn’t know what team they are playing, who doesn’t prepare their team and who doesn’t help their team do sufficient preparation for any confrontation or “game” – is leading them into a potential downfall. At a high school game its only a game – but the president as the Commander in Chief has a much more crucial role. Seems to me its way past time for him and his administration to suit up, we are NOT facing the JV team. We need to identify the enemy, call them by name, and study them so that we can defeat them. Its time for us to go on offense instead of getting lost in the backfield and coming up short on 4th down.

California Primary Field Guide

PRESENTING YOUR CALIFORNIA PRIMARY FIELD GUIDE
SAN DIEGO – Heading into today’s California Democratic primary, Bernie Sanders pushed hard to forge through the rough terrain of the West in an effort to strike gold on the California coast.

But it’s looking more like the Donner party than the lucky 49ers.

Although today’s contest could be very close, California has always been solid territory for the Clintons in the past and this cycle is looking to be no different.

Hillary Clinton may see a narrower margin than the 8-point victory against then-Sen. Barack Obama in 2008, but her pull with the state’s large swath of Hispanic voters combined with her stronger performances among older, better-educated voters, means she’s likely to win.

And so she’d better!

As of Monday, Clinton has claimed delegate majority and her party’s nomination. But today very much matters for momentum and narrative.

A Clinton win in the Golden State would officially shut down the Sanders machine. Though some may continue on with calls of unfair rules and issues with superdelegates, the rest of the Democratic Party, looking at facing Donald Trump, will coalesce for the sake of a November victory.

A big enough win could even take her to the nomination without relying on “superdelegates,” party elders who head to the Philadelphia convention technically unbound but substantially behind Clinton.

If Clinton loses today, however, her demand for Sanders to get out is much weaker, and his influence over her at the convention becomes stronger.

But Nate Silver’s argument as to how she won the nomination will be what gives her the likely win for today: More Democrats will vote for her. Yes, the margins will likely be closer than 2008 (see Nevada’s closer-than-expected results from a few months ago), but she has more pull with more voters in the state than Sanders.

For our final field guide of the 2016 cycle, let’s take a drive down the Pacific Coast Highway ahead of today’s California primary.

CALIFORNIA FIELD GUIDE
The politics of California is as diverse as the landscape: Booming cities, rough-riding cattle ranchers, coastal idylls, heart-swelling mountain vistas and desert wastelands.

But most of the voters live in and around the Bay Area in the central coast or Los Angeles and SoCal. And like the Giants and the Dodgers, they tend to disagree.

Bay Area: Baking for Bernie
The most “loyally liberal” part of the state, according to the Public Policy Institute of California’s 2012 study, is where Barack Obama did the best in 2008 and where Bernie Sanders will see his berniest bros come out for him.

Within the Bay Area, however, there is a split. In 2008, San Francisco County and Alameda County, two of the three most populous counties in the region, both went for Obama, but Santa Clara County, where Silicon Valley calls home in South San Francisco Bay, went for Clinton.

Hmmmmm…

There will be a strong cohort of Bernie loyalists that recall the heydays of Haight-Ashbury and will come out in droves for the socialist who spent time in a hippie commune. And there’s the new age wave of eco-friendly, reusable-bag toting Millennials who think redistributing wealth is a swell idea from their studio apartments on Telegraph Hill.

But Clinton’s strongest pull in this part of California is Donald Trump. It’s hard to imagine how Trump could have helped Clinton more in the final week of the primaries than by repeated declaring germane the ethnicity of a federal judge presiding over a fraud suit against Trump for allegedly ripping off vets, single moms and the elderly with a fake college.

Los Angeles: Stars shine for Hillary
The City of Angels has the largest vote share in the state’s Democratic primary, accounting for 25 percent of today’s vote share. Eight years ago, Clinton won Los Angeles County by over 13 points in the last Democratic primary, and back in 1992, her husband also won the county by 13 points against once-and-future California Gov. Jerry Brown.

Nearly half of the county is Hispanic, a group which came out for Clinton in Nevada earlier this year and has seen a sharp uptick in voter registration both in the state and nationwide.

Again, Trump does Clinton’s work for her.

This region of California and further south into Orange County and San Diego County tend to be the more conservative parts of the deep blue state and account for less Democratic primary votes.

These areas are among the wealthiest in the state and are not inclined towards Sandersian economics. Clinton won both Orange and San Diego counties in 2008 with a sweep of Southern California. She will likely perform similarly today.

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Indiana Primary Field Guide

It’s all coming down to the Hoosier State.

Indiana Republicans haven’t seen their state’s primary matter so much in 40 years. That’s because it’s been that long since the GOP nominating process has gone on this long.

The last time the GOP presidential hopefuls rumbled into the Hoosier State was 1976, when former California Gov. Ronald Reagan was giving chase to President Gerald Ford.

Reagan pulled off a narrow victory and, along with wins in Texas, Georgia and Nebraska, reclaimed momentum after back-to-back losses in April.

Reagan acolyte Sen. Ted Cruz certainly hopes for a similar storyline this year against frontrunner Donald Trump. But Cruz has some big problems with his preferred narrative. He has 46 percent of the delegates he needs to win, mathematically eliminating him from an outright victory.

Trump, meanwhile, is 81 percent of the way home and can only be denied in a contested convention that he promises would be an even uglier brawl than the race so far.

Indiana polls say Cruz is facing the elimination round of his run. Trump leads by 11 points in the Real Clear Politics average of polls for the state. Trump and his growing number of admirers in the party establishment are looking for Indiana to seal Cruz’s fate.

But reason an Indiana loss would be an extinction event for Cruz’s candidacy is that the state stacks up so well for him on paper. Its voters are very conservative, socially and fiscally. He was once seen as the favorite. Now, Republicans appear to have tired of their intractable, ugly nominating process, and the momentum is for Trump, or at least for surcease.

If Cruz wins in Indiana, those conservatives who are backing his candidacy more out of a desire to block Trump than to pick Cruz will begin to fall away in larger numbers. Their focus will shift quickly from the Republican nominating process to the possibility of a third party; perhaps the Libertarians, perhaps something new.

Cruz could, and probably would, vow to fight on in a bid to soak up as many delegates as possible in the final month of the race. But that would just make him a Republican Bernie Sanders – a man out of the running but looking to increase his bid price from the party and its presumptive nominee.

But Cruz could substantially right his listing vessel today with a comeback win. And if you get to know the people and places of Indiana, you’ll see why. Come with us for a tour of the 19th state.

By the numbers…
–57 total delegates
–30 statewide, 27 by congressional district
–Winner-take-all at state and district levels
–Open primary
–635,589 total ballots cast in 2012
–Last polls close at 7 p.m. ET

WITH YOUR SECOND CUP OF COFFEE…
Every basketball fan knows Indiana is the Hoosier State. There’s even a movie about it. But what many don’t know, including Hoosier fans, is where the word originally came from. The Indiana Historical Society casts some light on the mystery: “One of the earliest known uses of the term is found in an 1827 letter that states, ‘There is a yankee trick for you – done up by a Hoosier.’ …In 1831, Gen. John Tipton received a proposal from a businessman offering to name his boat the ‘Indiana Hoosier’ if Tipton would give him business in the area…The word ‘Hoosier’ was widely used by the 1830s. Around this time, John Finley of Richmond wrote a poem called The Hoosier’s Nest, which was widely read. He wrote the word as ‘hoosher’ and did not explain its meaning, which leads historians to believe that Finley felt his readers would already know and understand the word.”

NORTHWEST: BUCKLE OF THE RUST BELT
The outcome of this region is not in doubt: Trump, Trump and more Trump. The question is how many voters turn out.

Gary has definitely seen better days. The History Channel series about life after the extinction of the human race was partly filmed here.

Think of this like a smaller version of Detroit, in Wayne County, Mich. Trump won there by 13 points and can be expected to do even better here. Despite the whole casino thing

Lake County, which is home to Gary, is the second-most populous county in the state but provided only 3 percent of the total vote in 2012’s Republican primary. If Trump is going to deliver an Indiana knockout tonight he will do so in part by beefing up that number with lots of crossover Democrats and independent votes in the state’s open primary.

Lake County
–Population: 490,228
–Median household income: $49,617
–Race: Caucasian, 71 percent; black, 25 percent
–Adults with bachelor’s degrees: 20 percent
–2012 election: Obama 65 percent
–Residents 65 or older: 15 percent
–After native son Michael Jackson died in 2009, his father, Joe, and the local mayor teamed up to raise money for a museum dedicated to the pop star. Despite raising funds, no development has taken place yet.

NORTHEAST: GIDDY UP VALUES VOTERS
The large Amish communities in the northeastern quarter of Indiana are not the only socially conservative folks there.

Even in 2012, when he had already dropped out of the race, Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum still carded 20 percent of the vote or more in some of the counties in this portion of the state.

The population center of the region is Ft. Wayne in Allen County, which produced the third-largest number of GOP primary votes four years ago, behind only two metro Indianapolis counties.

If Cruz has a chance at an upset it will begin with massive support and massive turnout in this corner of the state.

Allen County
–Population: 368,450
–Median household income: $49,124
–Race: Caucasian, 81 percent; black, 12 percent
–Adults with bachelor’s degrees: 27 percent
–2012 election: Romney 57 percent
–Residents 65 or older: 13 percent
–What some say was first ever professional baseball game was played on May 4, 1871 in Fort Wayne. The Cleveland Forest Citys took on Fort Wayne’s Kekiongas, but the match was rained out at the top of the ninth inning with the home team up by two.

INDIANAPOLIS: START YOUR ENGINES
As we have seen with most major cities in these primaries, they are usually more Democratic than the states as a whole. But liberal-leaning or not, Marion County is the most populous in the state and will be the largest trove of votes. Four years ago, 12 percent of all votes came out of Marion.

That’s good news for Trump, who has thrived in Democratic strongholds, especially in open primaries.

But, unlike other cities where the suburbs mostly fall in collar counties, Marion is an urban/suburban split. There are plenty of higher income households that might deliver for Cruz or even some vestigial vote for Ohio Gov. John Kasich. That’s the same story in Hamilton County immediately to the north.

Expect nearly one in five votes to come from Marion and Hamilton combined.

Looking south to the conservative confines of Johnson County, things might be a bit different. This ought to be Trump’s best showing in the metro area.

Marion County
–Population: 934,243
–Median household income: $42,378
–Race: Caucasian, 66 percent; black, 28 percent
–Adults with bachelor’s degrees: 28 percent
–2012 election: Obama 60 percent
–Residents 65 or older: 11 percent
–The first event held at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway was a helium-filled balloon competition in 1909.

SOUTH: SWEET APPALACHIA
The only problem Trump has with the southern part of Indiana is that there isn’t more of it. As we saw in the neighboring region of Illinois, this is going to be a Trump blowout region.

Though geographically large, it’s mostly rural and home to just 20 percent or so of the state’s population. But what it lacks in volume it makes up for in intensity. Places like Jasper in Dubois County, ought to deliver big for Trump as will other counties between the Wabash and Ohio rivers.

Dubois County
–Population: 42,461
–Median household income: $54,186
–Race: Caucasian, 98 percent; black, 1 percent
–Adults with bachelor’s degrees: 18 percent
–2012 election: Romney 63 percent
–Residents 65 or older: 16 percent
–Jasper, located here, is considered the “Wood Capital of the World” with numerous furniture companies like Kimball International and Masterbrand Cabinets based here.

BELLWETHER
For today’s contest the bellwether to watch is Harrison County, just over the Ohio River from Louisville, Ky. Since 2000, this county has picked the GOP winner in every primary cycle within a fraction of the final statewide total.

Harrison County
–Population: 39,578
–Median household income: $53,483
–Race: Caucasian, 98 percent; black, 1 percent
–Adults with bachelor’s degrees: 16 percent
–2012 election: Romney 60 percent
–Residents 65 or older: 16 percent
–Home to vast underground caves where Daniel Boone and Squire Boone hid from Indians in the late 18th century. Squire Boone would later return and set up a homestead here.

[GOP delegate count: Trump 996; Cruz 565; Kasich 153 (1,237 needed to win)]

NO ONE CALLED ‘SHOTGUN’
True to his humble Indiana roots, native son President Benjamin Harrison wanted to be a fair leader to the nation’s newest states. After years of trying to establish statehood for the Dakota Territories, with much corruption and headache, Harrison didn’t want any further problems. Bismarck Tribune: “By 1884, Dakota had gone through a number of corrupt governors. This increased the demand for statehood. There was now a strong movement to have the territory divided with North Dakota and South Dakota coming into the union as separate states.  There also was an effort in southern Dakota Territory to get South Dakota admitted as a state and northern Dakota declared a territory…On Nov.2, President Benjamin Harrison signed the proclamation making North Dakota and South Dakota as the two newest states.  Since Harrison blindly signed the documents, we have no idea which one he signed first.”

Chris Stirewalt is digital politics editor for Fox News. Sally Persons contributed to this report. Want FOX News First in your inbox every day? Sign up here.

I-95 Primary Field Guide

Whether you call them grinders, subs or hoagies, there’s a pretty decent chance that if you are Northeastern Republican, it’s primary day for you.

It’s a piece of the primary calendar that has had remarkably little scrutiny in recent years. The Republican calendar is designed to give moderates like John McCain or Mitt Romney a boost with blue states in the late going. Much like California on the last day of balloting, these primaries are scheduled to provide stopping power against insurgents.

Or not…

We’ve talked before about Donald Trump as Bizzaro World Romney: a Northeastern, socially moderate businessman distrusted by the party’s conservative base. Trump has what Romney lacked: a passionate core group of followers. But he is only just now gaining what Romney had: the support of the party’s elite and the backing of its professional class.

But, ready or not, here he comes. Trump will perhaps not do as well overall in Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Connecticut and Rhode Island as Romney did four years ago, but he is almost certain to win.

How much Trump wins by, though, is quite material.

On the Democratic side, it doesn’t really matter. Whether presumptive nominee Hillary Clinton wins by 2 points or 20 points, it’s all about the narrative. Bernie Sanders can’t really catch her. And while she could win so big today that her race was not just substantially over but actually done, it’s only a question of time. She will not be denied.

Trump, however, needs both the narrative and the delegates. So we’ll leave the Democrats to their own devices today and focus on the hunt for the 172 delegates on the GOP side.

The stakes are these: Trump needs clearly to win all five contests, even if by pluralities, for the sake of momentum and claim at least 100 delegates for the sake of math. If Trump moves another furlong ahead of Sen. Ted Cruz today, Cruz’s task in must-win Indiana next week becomes that much harder.

With that in mind, let’s meet the last folks in America who still know what a passenger train looks like.

[Watch Fox: Megyn Kelly and Bret Baier bring you the latest as the results roll in tonight at 6 p.m. ET]

PENNSYLVANIA
For today’s primary contests, Pennsylvania is the one that matters the most. It has the most delegates on the line and the weirdest allocation system.

Only 17 of the state’s 71 delegates are given to the state’s overall primary winner. The remaining 54 are directly elected within their congressional districts – three for each of the 18 districts – but are unaffiliated with any campaign on the ballot.

This means that voters will elect delegates that aren’t officially supporting any particular candidate and are not bound to any candidate ahead of the national convention in Cleveland.

In normal years, that makes them objects of affection and desire among campaigns. This year, they had better just hope they have unlisted phone numbers. This will also require campaigns to continue to have a strong ground game in Pennsylvania beyond today’s vote, something that Cruz has been far more adept at than Trump throughout the cycle.

Even though Trump enjoys a 20-point lead over Cruz in the Real Clear Politics polling average in Pennsylvania, his delegate gains are likely to be substantially smaller.

The keys to the Keystone State are, not surprisingly, in and around Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. But there are some gains to be made in the broad expanse in between the home turf of the Stillers and the Iggles.

–71 total delegates
–17 at-large, 54 congressional delegates
–Winner-take-all statewide, unbound delegates elected on the district level.
–Closed primary
–811,706 total ballots cast in 2012
–Mitt Romney, 58 percent; Rick Santorum, 18 percent; Ron Paul, 13 percent; Newt Gingrich, 10 percent
–Polls close at 8 p.m. ET

Bucks County: Frilly Philly
–Population: 626,685
–Median household income: $76,824
–Race: Caucasian, 89 percent; black, 4 percent
–Adults with bachelor’s degrees: 37 percent
–2012 election: Obama 50 percent
–Residents 65 or older: 17 percent
–Yardley is where George Washington and his men set off for their history-turning Christmas Eve raid on Hessian troops dozing across the river in Trenton.

Washington County: Pittsburbs
–Population: 208,187
–Median household income: $55,323
–Race: Caucasian, 94 percent; black, 3 percent
–Adults with bachelor’s degrees: 26 percent
–2012 election: Romney 56 percent
–Residents 65 or older: 19 percent
–Site of the Whiskey Rebellion in 1791, when Scots-Irish residents rebelled against a tax on their currency: distilled spirits. President Washington, ahem, disagreed with their interpretation.

Centre County: They are Penn State
–Population: 160,580
–Median household income: $50,295
–Race: Caucasian, 89 percent; black, 4 percent
–Adults with bachelor’s degrees: 40 percent
–2012 election: Obama 49 percent
–Residents 65 or older: 12 percent
–Pennsylvania Match Company was founded in 1899 and was among the leading producers of wooden matches in America until World War II.

MARYLAND
Like Pennsylvania, Maryland is divided into three states: the rural western Panhandle, the D.C. suburbs and the shore. But unlike the Keystone State, Maryland awards all of its 38 delegates today.

The panhandle and the areas around Baltimore County are pretty much a slam-dunk for Trump, but the D.C. suburbs of Montgomery County will prove challenging for the Republican frontrunner. This area is similar to Fairfax and Loudon Counties in Virginia, which went heavily for Sen. Marco Rubio in their primary back in March. Gov. John Kasich can expect to see some support kick in today.

Further out in Frederick County is where Cruz will see his votes aiming for the sweet spot between the more liberal conservatives in Washington area and the fervent Trump supporters in the outskirts. These areas are more conservative by nature, yet are still affluent areas that are not natural to Trump’s base.

–38 total delegates
–14 at-large, 24 district delegates
–Winner-take-all
–Closed primary
–248,468 total ballots cast in 2012
–Mitt Romney, 49 percent; Rick Santorum, 28 percent; Newt Gingrich, 11 percent, Ron Paul, 10 percent
–Polls close at 8 p.m. ET

Montgomery County: Club Fed
–Population: 1,030,447
–Median household income: $98,704
–Race: Caucasian, 62 percent; black, 19 percent
–Adults with bachelor’s degrees: 57 percent
–2012 election: Obama 71 percent
–Residents 65 or older: 14 percent
–Among the 10 richest counties in America.

Frederick County: Out West
–Population: 243,322
–Median household income: $84,480
–Race: Caucasian, 83 percent; black, 9 percent
–Adults with bachelor’s degrees: 39 percent
–2012 election: Romney 50 percent
–Residents 65 or older: 13 percent
–In 1862, Confederate Gen. Robert E. Lee seized Frederick’s train yards in order to choke off supplies to the Army of the Potomac, but failed to arouse what he hoped would be an uprising of support for the rebellion.

Baltimore County: Down to The Wire
–Population: 831,128
–Median household income: $66,940
–Race: Caucasian, 64 percent; black, 28 percent
–Adults with bachelor’s degrees: 36 percent
–2012 election: Obama 57 percent
–Residents 65 or older: 16 percent
–Bengies drive-in theater in Middle River is the largest continually operated movie theater screen in America.

CONNECTICUT
If Trump delivers in Connecticut the way he did in his neighboring home state of New York, the Constitution State’s unique allocation of delegates won’t be a problem.

But…

Connecticut awards their 10 statewide delegates to the winner with over 50 percent, which based on neighboring New York’s results could be a possibility for Trump. If no candidate reaches that 50 percent mark then each candidate with 20 percent support receives delegates proportionally based on their results.

This would still be good for Trump because even if he doesn’t clinch a 50 percent mark, he’ll likely be very close to it meaning he can still walk away with a majority of delegates.

The district level delegates are awarded to the winner of each of the five congressional districts. Areas like Fairfield County just outside of the greater New York City area is where Kasich may find his support. These are the affluent, well-educated types of voters that gave him a congressional district in Manhattan last Tuesday, so there’s a chance he could snag a few delegates here.

The rest of the state looks a lot more like Hartford County with its blue-collar roots, post-industry boomtown with the same ethnic populations of the Trump strongholds we’ve seen in New Hampshire, Massachusetts and New York.

And if the state’s Republicans were once willing to pick a pro wrestling executive as a Senate candidate in 2010, why not one of its charactersfor president?

–28 total delegates
–13 at-large, 15 district delegates
–Winner-take-most
–Closed primary
–59,578 total ballots cast in 2012
–Mitt Romney, 67 percent; Ron Paul, 13 percent; Newt Gingrich, 10 percent; Rick Santorum, 7 percent
–Polls close at 8 p.m. ET

Fairfield County: Ahoy, polloi
–Population: 948,053
–Median household income: $83,163
–Race: Caucasian, 80 percent; black, 12 percent
–Adults with bachelor’s degrees: 45 percent
–2012 election: Obama 55 percent
–Residents 65 or older: 14 percent
–As with all counties in Connecticut, there is no county government or county seat. Each town is responsible for all local government activities.

Hartford County: Remember the Whalers
–Population: 897,985
–Median household income: $65,499
–Race: Caucasian, 77 percent; black, 15 percent
–Adults with bachelor’s degrees: 36 percent
–2012 election: Obama 62 percent
–Residents 65 or older: 16 percent
–The Hartford Courant is recognized as the oldest continuously run newspaper in the United States, beginning in 1764.

RHODE ISLAND
Meet the Buddy Cianci Republicans.

The former Providence mayor, who died in January, had some disagreements with the federal government. But he might have credibly run for mayor in 2014 despite his criminal convictions if it weren’t for the cancer that killed him. A colorful crook who favored tough tactics, locals loved their hard-knocks mayor.

A wide authoritarian streak runs through Rhode Island’s Republicans, much like those in New York. So it’s no surprise that Trump should ride roughshod everywhere from Federal Hill to Warwick.

The rules for delegates, though, are as slippery as a quahog.

The Ocean State also awards their statewide delegates proportionally with a mandatory 10 percent threshold. In the congressional districts, if one candidate receives 67 percent of the vote then that candidate receives two delegates and the next highest candidate receives one. If no one reaches 67 percent then the top three candidates with a 10 percent threshold each receive one delegate.

These rules somewhat favor Trump who is expected to sweep Rhode Island in today’s contest. Even those in highly affluent areas like coastal Washington County are unlikely to have enough Kasich voters to give delegates to anyone but the Republican frontrunner. And most of the vote share lies in Providence County, a highly ethnic, working-class town that looks a lot like Boston and Staten Island making it an expected sweeping victory for Trump in the state’s most populous county.

–19 total delegates
–13 at-large, 6 district delegates
–Proportional
–Open to Republicans, unaffiliated voters
–14,564 total ballots cast in 2012
–Mitt Romney, 63 percent; Ron Paul, 24 percent; Newt Gingrich, 6 percent; Rick Santorum, 6 percent
–Polls close at 8 p.m. ET

Washington County: Chip off the old Block
–Population: 126,517
–Median household income: $72,784
–Race: Caucasian, 94 percent; black, 1 percent
–Adults with bachelor’s degrees: 44 percent
–2012 election: Obama 57 percent
–Residents 65 or older: 18 percent
–Known as “South County” it has some of the best seaside spots in the eastern states, including Block Island and Watch Hill.

DELAWARE
With only one congressional district, Delaware looks to be a sweep for Trump across the board. The rules here are pretty simple: majority wins it all. This makes things even easier for Trump. The main stash of voters is in New Castle County where the capital, Dover is, but those in the beach communities in Sussex County will likely be just as strong for the Republican frontrunner.

–16 total delegates
–13 at-large, 3 district delegates
–Winner-take-all
–Closed primary
–28,592 total ballots cast in 2012
–Mitt Romney, 56 percent; Newt Gingrich, 27 percent; Ron Paul, 11 percent; Rick Santorum, 6 percent
–Polls close at 8 p.m. ET

Sussex County: Under the boardwalk
–Population: 210,849
–Median household income: $53,505
–Race: Caucasian, 83 percent; black, 13 percent
–Adults with bachelor’s degrees: 22 percent
–2012 election: Obama 57 percent
–Residents 65 or older: 24 percent
–Every two years, the community of Georgetown has a festival known as Return Day, two days after Election Day. The holiday originates from colonial times when the town would gather to hear election results and end any animosities with a traditional ox roast.

[GOP delegate count: Trump 845; Cruz 559; Kasich 148 (1,237 needed to win)]

Chris Stirewalt is digital politics editor for Fox News. Sally Persons contributed to this report. Want FOX News First in your inbox every day? Sign up here.

Your New York Field Guide

FOX News First: April 19
By Chris Stirewalt

PRESENTING YOUR NEW YORK FIELD GUIDE
It’s been 72 years since a New Yorker was last elected president. And it’s been 60 years since either party nominated a New Yorker. But as the wild and wooly 2016 primaries roll into the nation’s third-most populous state, New Yorkers stand atop both the Democratic and Republican ranks.

While home-state wins for Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are to be expected – certainly for Trump, who faces a still-divided GOP – how they win, and by how much could prove very important for the closing weeks of both parties’ nominating processes. And if Clinton were to lose? Well, hold on to your Birkenstocks.

Polls close at 9 p.m. ET, and there’s plenty to know. So grab a crisp empire or any of the more than 40 varieties of apples grown in New York, kick back and enjoy the grand tour of the Excelsior State’s political geography.

HIGH STAKES AT HOME FOR HILLARY
Eight years ago, then-Sen. Clinton won her home state by a whopping 17 points and carried away almost half of the delegates. But the Real Clear Politics average of polls shows her on track to do a bit worse than that, and against a substantially weaker opponent.

Could some of the surprisingly close margin in New York be attributable to the fact that her rival, Sen. Bernie Sanders, is a New York native? Sure. But it is also reflective of the listlessness that has marked her frontrunners’ march to the nomination all year.

Most alarming for Clinton is that Sanders has dramatically outperformed pre-election polling in states like Michigan and Wisconsin, which makes an upset possible. A loss in her home state would not permanently ruin Clinton’s chances, but it would be a devastating setback.

The state’s closed primary does help her, since the independents and fringe-party members that might naturally support Sanders can’t play. She can also count on the astonishing diversity of the New York metro area, and the voters of the many wealthy enclaves beyond the subway lines.

But Sanders can find lots of reason to hope in a city that elected Bill de Blasio as its mayor and in a state that has seen a leftward lurch in its politics over the past decade. The Vermont senator only started actively seeking votes in New York at the end of March, but has been pouring it on since then.

A whopping 247 delegates will be awarded on the basis of today’s election on the Democratic side. Of those, 84 will be divided proportionately between Clinton and Sanders on the statewide level. But the real delegate haul is at the congressional-district level where the state’s 27 districts will award a total 163 delegates, also proportionately based on the popular vote by district.

The candidates have been looking high and low for potential voters, but where should you be looking for the keys to victory on the Democratic side?

[Dem delegate count: Clinton 1758; Sanders 1076 (2,383 needed to win)]

THE CITY SPLIT
Both Clinton and Sanders can claim New York City as a place to shine today, but for very different reasons. Clinton will expect to do well in places like the Bronx, where non-Hispanic white voters are a tiny sliver of the electorate, while Sanders will be aiming for the hipster youth and older liberals in places like Brooklyn.

Kings County: Brooklyn
–7th, 8th, 9th congressional districts
–Population: 2,621,793
–Median household income: $46,958
–Race: Caucasian (non-Hispanic), 39 percent; Hispanic, 20 percent; black, 35 percent
–Adults with bachelor’s degrees: 32 percent
–2012 election: Obama 82 percent
–Residents 65 and older: 12 percent
–Originally its own separate city, Brooklyn did not become part of the City of New York until the turn of the century dubbed the “Great Mistake of 1898” by many in Brooklyn at the time.

Bronx County
–15th, 16th Congressional District
–Population: 1,455,444
–Median household income: $70,794
–Race: Caucasian “non-Hispanic,” 11 percent; Hispanic, 55 percent; black, 44 percent
–Adults with bachelor’s degrees: 18 percent
–2012 election: Obama 91 percent
–Residents 65 and older: 11 percent
Edgar Allen Poe wrote several famous poems in his Bronx home, including Annabel Lee.

BERN NOTICE
If Sanders and his supporters could build a world all of their own, it might look a lot like Central New York: farms, college towns and staunchly liberal politics.

This is the Sanders breadbasket this year. Central New York included some of Clinton’s weakest spots in the 2008 primary and promises to do so again. Syracuse University, Ithaca College, Cornell University and the white rural voters who reflect Sanders’ home state of Vermont should deliver bigly for him.

Tompkins County: Ithaca
–23rd district
–Population: 104,926
–Median household income: $52,836
–Race: Caucasian, 82 percent; black, 4 percent
–Adults with bachelor’s degrees: 50 percent
–2012 election: Obama 52 percent
–Residents 65 and older: 12 percent
–Ithaca has its own local currency called, HOUR, started in 1991 to keep money in the local economy. HOUR is equal to roughly $10 and is widely accepted in the town.

[Watch Fox: Megyn Kelly and Bret Baier team up to bring special coverage of the New York primary tonight starting with “Special Report” at6 p.m. ET]

Your Super Tuesday Field Guide

Is this the end of the beginning or the beginning of the end? That’s what Republican voters in 11 states will decide today as they head to the polls and caucuses to determine whether they are content with their frontrunner,Donald Trump, or ready to shake things up.

The only state of the 11 deciding today in which Trump does not lead pre-election polls is Texas, where favorite son, Sen. Ted Cruz, seems to have the edge. But elsewhere, it looks like Trump by a mile. In some spots where blue-collar white voters dominate, like Alabama and Massachusetts, Trump’s lead in some polls crosses into the stratosphere.

Overall, however, the shape of the race in the Super Tuesday states looks more like what we saw in Iowa and South Carolina: Trump is ahead but Sens. Marco Rubio and Cruz are within hailing distance and splitting up half of the vote or so.

Let’s consider some scenarios:

Say goodnight – If Donald Trump has been helped rather than hurt by the sustained attacks on his business record and character by Cruz and Rubio, and if the Republican electorate has really accommodated itself to the idea of the celebrity billionaire as its standard bearer, it could all be over bymidnight. Should Trump win all 11 contests or dominate 10 and come close in Texas, you can go ahead and call him the presumptive nominee.

A longer road – Past could be prologue for today’s contest, and that’s still good news for Trump overall. If the polls are predictive, which they have mostly been so far, then Trump’s advantage is in the limited success of his rivals. If Trump wins 40 percent of the nearly 600 delegates on the table, but Cruz and Rubio remain knotted behind him, then Trump would continue to march on to victory. It would take longer, but a split decision in the rest of the party would mean continued division and possibly even the continued candidacies of Gov. John Kasich and Ben Carson. This is the one in which we hear a lot of palaver about a brokered convention.

Reset button – It’s only as late in the game as Republican voters think it is. Trump triumphalism, greeted by cheers in some quarters and baleful tears in others, is a state of mind. While nearly a quarter of delegates are on the table today, 71 percent of all delegates will still be untouched on Wednesday morning. There are more delegates available in the two weeks after today, many in winner-take-all contests, than in every contest so far. If Republicans are getting cold feet about Trump and he is losing some of his luster, today could be the hinge on the gate that swings the election into a new phase. Rubio needs a moon shot to pull this off, but that could begintonight.

[Watch Fox: The AEHQ team is at it again with Megyn Kelly and Bret Baier teaming up for another primary day special starting tonight at 6 p.m. ET through the night as the results come in.]

POWER PLAY: SUPER TUESDAY SUPER STATES
There are a lot of states voting today and with so many possible scenarios who knows what could happen? Chris Stirewalt breaks down the key counties and states to watch today that could give you the inside scoop as the results are tallied tonight. WATCH HERE.

THE LAY OF THE LAND
Here’s your state-by-state guide to the Super Tuesday votes with the key counties to watch. Have fun and stay tuned!

TEXAS
There are two contests in Texas for the Republicans: One for pride and the other for delegates. Cruz hopes to win both, and will be counting on his neighbors in the Houston metro area to deliver it for him. But Trump should find plenty of good drilling in the vast countryside where lower-income voters dominate. Rubio will be looking to scoop up some delegates from suburban Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, and Austin. Even a respectable third-place finish in Texas could still net as many delegates as were awarded in Nevada last week.

–155 delegates
–108 delegates from the state’s 36 congressional districts, three per district (outright majority wins all three district delegates, plurality win gets two, with one for the runner-up)
–47 at-large delegates based on statewide results (outright majority win receives all at-large delegates, if two candidates receive 20 percent or more the delegates will be allocated proportionally, if no one receives 20 percent delegates are awarded proportionally)
–Open primary
–7,999,657 ballots cast in 2012
–Mitt Romney, 69 percent; Ron Paul, 12 percent; Rick Santorum, 8 percent; Newt Gingrich, 5 percent
–Polls close at 8 p.m. ET

Harris County: Houston is Cruz Country
Cruz’s electoral base is right in the densest concentration of Republican votes in the state of Texas. The simplest way for him to win is to just run up the score on his home turf.

–Population: 4,441,370
–Median household income: $53,148
–Unemployment: 5 percent
–Race: Caucasian, 71 percent; Hispanic, 42 percent
–Adults with bachelor’s degree: 28 percent
–Residents age 65 or older: 9 percent
–2012 general election: Obama 49 percent
–Note: Most populous county in Texas; fourth most populous county in the U.S.

[2012 Republican Primary: Mitt Romney, 69 percent; Ron Paul, 13 percent; Rick Santorum, 7 percent; Newt Gingrich, 5 percent]

Dallas County: A milder picante
Like other large to midsize cities in Texas, the more affluent suburbs of Dallas County could prove fruitful for Rubio, even if he does not win the overall metropolitan area. Rubio could steal some votes here and maybe even carry a congressional district. That could help him get out Texas with his boots on.

–Population: 2,518,638
–Median household income: $49,481
–Unemployment: 5 percent
–Race: Caucasian, 68 percent; black, 23 percent
–Adults with bachelor’s degree: 29 percent
–Residents age 65 or older: 10 percent
–2012 general election: 57 percent

[2012 Republican Primary: Mitt Romney, 72 percent; Ron Paul, 10 percent; Rick Santorum, 8 percent; Newt Gingrich, 5 percent]

Randall County: Trump’s America
The best news for Donald Trump in Texas is the sheer size of the Lone Star State. While Texas is dominated by four huge metropolitan areas, there are dozens of what would be considered small to medium size cities in ordinary states. Those places include cities like Amarillo with a population of about 200,000, most of which is in Randall County.

–Population: 128,220
–Median household income: $58,529
–Unemployment: 3 percent
–Race: Caucasian, 93 percent; Hispanic, 20 percent
–Adults with bachelor’s degree: 30 percent
–Residents age 65 or older: 14 percent
–2012 general election: Romney 83 percent

[2012 Republican Primary: Mitt Romney, 72 percent; Rick Santorum, 10 percent; Ron Paul, 8 percent; Newt Gingrich, 4 percent]

GEORGIA
The Peach State is the biggest unknown today, not in the sense that its outcome is a mystery – Trump should win first place handily – but in how the rest of its vote will break out and how large Trump’s lead will be. Trump has consistently held between 30 and 40 percent of the vote in polls recently, but Rubio and Cruz have shown strength and durability behind him.

–76 delegates, bound
–42 are awarded from the state’s 14 congressional districts, three per district (outright majority wins all three district delegates, plurality win gets two, with one for the runner-up)
–34 at-large delegates based on statewide results (20 percent threshold)
–Open primary
–3,908,369 ballots cast in 2012
–Newt Gingrich, 47 percent; Mitt Romney, 26 percent; Rick Santorum, 20 percent; Ron Paul, 7 percent
–Polls close at 7 p.m. ET (Note: polling places with a population of more than 300,000 will be open until 8 p.m. ET)

Fulton County: Trump’s test
While the outer suburbs of Atlanta are happy Trump territory, close-in suburbs with affluent and better educated voters will be his proving ground. If Trump can win with Republicans and crossover Democrats in tony sections like Buckhead and other places inside the I-285 Beltway, he will be on his way to a romp. Conversely if Rubio shows that more moderate Republicans are rallying to his banner as they did for Mitt Romney four years ago, Georgia could be the start of the turnaround for the race.

–Population: 996,319
–Median household income: $58,857
–Unemployment: 9 percent
–Race: Caucasian, 48 percent; black 44 percent
–Adults with bachelor’s degree: 48 percent
–Residents age 65 or older: 10 percent
–2012 general election: Obama 64 percent

[2012 Republican Primary: Mitt Romney, 47 percent; Newt Gingrich, 32 percent; Rick Santorum, 12 percent; Ron Paul, 8 percent]

Bartow County: Appalachian spring
The lesson learned about Trump’s support from the South Carolina Primary is that it is most intense in places where incomes are low and white voters live alongside large minority populations. But we also learned that support for Cruz and Rubio was stronger in Appalachia. And North Georgia has plenty of Appalachia. While Trump can be expected to dominate smaller communities in the south and east, places like Cartersville in Bartow County a third of the way to the Tennessee State Line from Atlanta, could be good for Cruz and Rubio.

–Population: 101,736
–Median household income: $47,197
–Unemployment: 8 percent
–Race: Caucasian, 86 percent; black, 11 percent
–Adults with bachelor’s degree: 16 percent
–Residents age 65 or older: 13 percent
–2012 general election: Romney 75 percent

[2012 Republican Primary: Newt Gingrich, 56 percent; Rick Santorum, 19 percent; Mitt Romney, 18 percent; Ron Paul, 6 percent]

VIRGINIA
If Rubio is really a viable contender, Virginia is where he will show it. It is a blue-hued swing state with lots of upscale suburbanites, well-educated voters and moderate Republicans. But conversely, if he can’t do well here the idea of a Rubio stretch run will run out of gas.

–49 delegates
–All delegates awarded proportionally based on statewide results with no threshold
–Open primary
–3,854,489 ballots cast in 2012
–Mitt Romney, 60 percent; Ron Paul, 40 percent
–Polls close at 7 p.m. ET

Fairfax County: Club Fed
One of the wealthiest counties in America, Fairfax County is home to people who feel the very best about the federal government. The so-called “Beltway Bandits” who have prospered with fine federal jobs or fat federal contracts live here. Though overwhelmingly Democratic since the 1990s, by sheer size, Fairfax is still home to lots of Republicans. Like the cluster of counties that surround it this should be good territory for Rubio, but he needs to be on the lookout for John Kasich. If Kasich’s spoiler campaign is going to hurt Rubio anywhere it will be among the centrist, government enthusiasts of NoVa.

–Population: 1,137,538
–Median household income: $110,292
–Unemployment: 4 percent
–Race: Caucasian, 67 percent; Hispanic, 16 percent
–Adults with bachelor’s degree: 59 percent
–Residents age 65 or older: 12 percent
–2012 general election: Obama 60 percent

[2012 Republican Primary: Mitt Romney, 65 percent; Ron Paul, 35 percent]

Albemarle County: Wahoobio?
One of the reasons that Marco Rubio can be cautiously optimistic about his chances in Virginia is the sustained growth of Charlottesville and the University of Virginia. Previous elections saw only three centers of population in the state: The dense suburbs of Northern Virginia, Richmond and its environs, and the industrial Tidewater region. But Charlottesville offers a surprising number of votes and, if other affluent university towns so far this cycle are a guide, fecund ground for Rubio.

–Population: 104,489
–Median household income: $67,725
–Unemployment: 3 percent
–Race: Caucasian, 83 percent; black 10 percent
–Adults with bachelor’s degree: 52 percent
–Residents age 65 or older: 17 percent
–2012 general election: Obama 55 percent

[2012 Republican Primary: Mitt Romney, 62 percent; Ron Paul, 38 percent]

OKLAHOMA
Why isn’t Trump doing better in Oklahoma polls? The state matches his demographic profile: white, ranked 42nd in adults with college degrees and 41st in median household income. But instead of the Trump smash being forecast in some other similar-seeming states, polls show Trump only 10 points or so ahead. There are a few possible explanations including the expansive, though recently arrested, success of the natural gas industry. But more likely it is this: Oklahoma may be the most politically conservative state in America. The Sooner State sent fiscal disciplinarian “Dr. No,” Tom Coburn (now boosting Rubio) to Congress for as long as he wanted.

–43 delegates
–15 congressional district delegates, three for each of the 5 districts (outright majority win receives all congressional delegates, top three finishers get one delegate each if they receive above 15 percent of the voter)
–28 at-large delegates based on statewide results (outright majority win receives all at-large delegates, if candidates receive 15 percent or above the delegates will be allocated proportionally)
–Closed primary
–1,334,872 ballots cast in 2012
–Rick Santorum, 34 percent; Mitt Romney, 28 percent; Newt Gingrich, 27 percent; Ron Paul, 10 percent
–Polls close at 8 p.m. ET

Oklahoma County: Almost all the marbles
Oklahoma City was a boomtown and is still a hub for the region. It’s fast growing southern suburbs, including Moore, ought to see a fairly close split between Rubio and Cruz.

–Population: 766,215
–Median household income: $45,215
–Unemployment: 3 percent
–Race: Caucasian, 71 percent; black, 16 percent
–Adults with bachelor’s degree: 30 percent
–Residents age 65 or older: 13 percent
–2012 general election: Romney 58 percent

[2012 Republican Primary: Mitt Romney, 34 percent; Rick Santorum, 31 percent; Newt Gingrich, 23 percent; Ron Paul, 11 percent]

ALABAMA
TRUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUMP!

–50 delegates
–21 district delegates three delegates for each of the seven counties (outright majority or the only candidate with over 20 percent receives all congressional delegates, if more than one candidate receives 20 percent the candidate with the most votes gets two delegates and the runner up gets one delegate)
–29 at-large delegates based on statewide results (outright majority or above a 20 percent win receives all at-large delegates, if no one reaches that mark delegates will be allocated proportionally to those finishing above 20 percent)
–Open primary
–2,074,338 ballots cast in 2012
–Rick Santorum, 35 percent; Newt Gingrich, 29 percent; Mitt Romney, 29 percent; Ron Paul, 5 percent
–Polls close at 8 p.m. ET (Note: Some polling places in Alabama are in the Eastern Time zone and close at 7 p.m. ET while others in the Central Time zone close at 8 p.m. ET)

Mobile County: Coastal elite
While there is a large blue-collar population on Alabama’s Gulf Coast it is also home to some of the state’s most affluent, upscale voters. The most votes can be found around Birmingham and Jackson, this demographically split portion of the state offers some interesting wrinkles. But it’s probably Trump, the whole Trump and nothing but the Trump.

–Population: 415,123
–Median household income: $43,028
–Unemployment: 7 percent
–Race: Caucasian, 60 percent; black, 35 percent
–Adults with bachelor’s degree: 21 percent
–Residents age 65 or older: 15 percent
–2012 general election: Romney 54 percent

[2012 Republican Primary: Mitt Romney, 36 percent; Rick Santorum, 34 percent; Newt Gingrich, 24 percent; Ron Paul, 5 percent]

ARKANSAS
In the greatest film ever set in Arkansas, John Wayne’s “True Grit,” Marshal Rooster Cogburn tells the outlaw Ned Pepper that he means to kill him in “one minute,” or see him hanged in Fort Smith. Pepper, played by Robert Duval, looks at Cogburn’s paunch and declares, “I call that bold talk for a one-eyed fat man.” You can tell the same to anyone who pretends to know what will happen in the Arkansas Republican Primary.

–40 delegates
–12 district delegates, three for each of the state’s four congressional districts (outright majority win receives all the district delegates, if no candidate receives a majority of the vote the candidate with the plurality receives two delegates and the runner up receives one)
–28 at-large delegates based on statewide results (each candidate with 15 percent or more receives one delegate and the candidate with the majority receives the rest, if no candidate has a statewide majority the remaining delegates are awarded proportionally to those above 15 percent of the vote)
–Closed primary
–1,069,468 ballots cast in 2012
–Mitt Romney, 68 percent; Ron Paul, 13 percent; Rick Santorum, 13 percent; Newt Gingrich, 5 percent
–Polls close at 8:30 p.m. CST

Pulaski County: Two stories
There are two ways to look at Arkansas’ capital, Little Rock, and its county, Pulaski. On one hand, it looks like Trump country, where lots of blue-collar white voters live in close proximity to a significant number of minorities. But it’s also a capital city where there are plenty of upscale voters. There’s a decent chance that the three frontrunners will come out essentially even.

–Population: 392,701
–Median household income: $46,013
–Unemployment: 5 percent
–Race: Caucasian, 59 percent; black 36 percent
–Adults with bachelor’s degree: 31 percent
–Residents age 65 or older: 14 percent
–2012 general election: Obama 55 percent

[2012 Republican Primary: Mitt Romney, 71 percent; Ron Paul, 13 percent; Rick Santorum, 12 percent; Newt Gingrich, 4 percent]

Benton County: Company town
Politicians in both parties have spent more than a decade pursuing the elusive “Walmart voter.” Well, here’s your chance. The corporate headquarters of America’s largest private employer is here in Bentonville and it is among the most prosperous places in a region not known for its prosperity. This county in the northwest corner of the state could be a hidden gem for Rubio.

–Population: 242,321
–Median household income: $54,515
–Unemployment: 4 percent
–Race: Caucasian, 90 percent; black 2 percent
–Adults with bachelor’s degree: 29 percent
–Residents age 65 or older: 13 percent
–2012 general election: Romney 70 percent

[2012 Republican Primary: Mitt Romney, 65 percent; Rick Santorum, 16 percent; Ron Paul, 15 percent; Newt Gingrich, 5 percent]

TENNESSEE
You can divide Tennessee into three distinct regions: The Appalachian east, the Cumberland Valley around Nashville in the center, and the Memphis sprawl in the west. The eastern side of the state around Knoxville should be revealing about the relative strengths about Rubio and Cruz. Like the rest of the region, the population and economic center of metro Knoxville should be better for the two senators than elsewhere. The battle and most of the votes, however, will be to the west.

–58 delegates
–27 district delegates three from each of the nine congressional districts (candidate with either 67 percent majority in the district wins all three delegates, if no one reaches that mark candidates with the highest percent of the vote receive two delegates and the runner up gets one delegate so long as they have above 20 percent of the vote)
–31 at-large delegates based on statewide results (candidate with 67 percent of the vote receives all at-large delegates, otherwise delegates are distributed proportionally to those with 20 percent of the vote)
–Open primary
–2,460,904 ballots cast in 2012
–Rick Santorum, 37 percent; Mitt Romney, 28 percent; Newt Gingrich, 24 percent; Ron Paul, 9 percent
–Most polls close at either 7 or 8 p.m. ET (Polls closings vary by county and are split between Eastern and Central time zones)

Williamson County: Moderate twang
You probably think of Nashville as Music City. But if you live in Tennessee, you think of it as the state capital, and a large, growing, affluent city that is home to Vanderbilt University and multiple corporate headquarters. As the county stretches out to the south, however, it takes in more blue-collar voters on the other side of Franklin. Like the Northern Virginia suburbs, if Marco Rubio is a contender for 2016 he will do well in Williamson County.

–Population: 205,226
–Median household income: $89,779
–Unemployment: 4 percent
–Race: Caucasian, 90 percent; black 5 percent
–Adults with bachelor’s degree: 53 percent
–Residents age 65 or older: 12 percent
–2012 general election:  Romney 73 percent

[2012 Republican Primary: Mitt Romney, 36 percent; Rick Santorum, 32 percent; Newt Gingrich, 23 percent; Ron Paul, 8 percent]

Shelby County: Trump smokes ‘em
There’s a lot to like about Memphis and its main suburban county, particularly the blues and barbeque. But if you are Donald Trump there’s even more. The county has some wealthy enclaves, but is dominated in Republican politics by his kind of voter.

–Population: 938,803
–Median household income: $46,250
–Unemployment: 6 percent
–Race: Caucasian, 42 percent; black, 53 percent
–Adults with bachelor’s degree: 29 percent
–Residents age 65 or older: 12 percent
–2012 general election: Obama 63 percent

[2012 Republican Primary: Rick Santorum, 37 percent; Mitt Romney, 34 percent; Newt Gingrich, 19 percent; Ron Paul, 8 percent]

MASSACHUSETTS
If you thought New Hampshire liked Donald Trump, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet. With the same primary setup as New Hampshire that allows independents to vote, a lot of fed-up, blue-collar voters and no particular bent towards conservativism, Massachusetts is maximum Trump. He may get enough votes in Middlesex County alone to carry the state’s primary. Middlesex is the broad swap of urban sprawl on the north side of Boston, part of which was once represented by Trump endorser former Sen. Scott Brown.

–42 delegates
–27 district delegates three for each of the state’s nine congressional districts
–15 at-large delegates
–All delegates allocated proportionally based on statewide results with a five percent threshold
–Mixed primary (Republicans and independents can vote in the GOP primary, but not Democrats)
–3,167,767 ballots cast in 2012
–Mitt Romney, 93 percent; Unallocated, 7 percent
–Polls close at 8 p.m. ET

Middlesex County:
–Population: 1,570,315
–Median household income: $82,090
–Unemployment: 4 percent
–Race: Caucasian, 81 percent; Hispanic, 8 percent
–Adults with bachelor’s degree: 51 percent
–Residents age 65 or older: 14 percent
–2012 general election: Obama 63 percent

[2012 Republican Primary: Mitt Romney, 72 percent; Rick Santorum, 12; Ron Paul 10 percent]

MINNESOTA
Like their neighbors to the south in Iowa, Minnesotans go to caucus to pick their presidential nominees. And that makes things weird. Rick Santorumcarried the state in 2012 as he was gamely chasing Romney, even though Minnesota didn’t demographically match Santorum’s other successful areas. The only poll taken this year showed Rubio slightly ahead of Cruz and Trump at the end of January. But who the heck knows? Organization is the key in these small-turnout affairs. Trump showed he could deliver in Nevada, so keep your eyes on the North Star State. Most of the vote will come from Hennepin County in the suburbs of Minneapolis.

–38 delegates
–Candidate with 85 percent or more receives all 38 delegates
–24 district delegates, three from each of the state’s eight districts, will be awarded proportionally to those with a mandatory 10 percent threshold within the district
–14 at-large delegates based on statewide results to those with a mandatory 10 percent threshold
–Open caucus
–2,936,561 ballots cast in 2012
–Rick Santorum, 45 percent; Ron Paul, 27 percent; Mitt Romney, 17 percent; Newt Gingrich, 11 percent
–Polls close at 9 p.m. ET

Hennepin County:
–Population: 1,212,064
–Median household income: $64,403
–Unemployment: 3 percent
–Race: Caucasian, 76 percent; black 13 percent
–Adults with bachelor’s degree: 46 percent
–Residents age 65 or older: 13 percent
–2012 general election: Obama 62 percent

[2012 Republican Primary: Rick Santorum, 45 percent; Ron Paul, 27 percent; Mitt Romney, 17 percent; Newt Gingrich, 11 percent]

ALASKA
Where the heck has Sarah Palin been? After a few days on the trail with her candidate Trump, we haven’t heard much from the former Alaska governor. But presumably she should be able to deliver her home state for him. Trump and Palin, however, must beware of the wide streak of establishment Republicanism that runs through Alaska. Even so, the last frontier ought to come in late, but heavy for Trump. Keep your eyes on Mantanuska-Susitna Borough — the heart of the “Mat-Su Valley” — that’s where almost all the votes will be.

–28 delegates
–Delegates allocated proportionally with a mandatory 13 percent threshold statewide
–Closed caucus
–300,495 ballots cast in 2012
–Mitt Romney, 32 percent; Rick Santorum, 30 percent; Ron Paul, 24 percent; Newt Gingrich, 13 percent
–Polls close 12 a.m. (March 2nd)

Mantanuska-Susitna Borough:
–Population: 97,882
–Median household income: $71,037
–Unemployment: 8 percent
–Race: Caucasian, 84 percent; black, 1 percent
–Adults with bachelor’s degree: 21 percent
–Residents age 65 or older: 10 percent
–2012 general election: Romney 55 percent

[2012 Republican Primary: Mitt Romney, 32 percent; Rick Santorum, 30 percent; Ron Paul, 24 percent; Newt Gingrich, 13 percent]

VERMONT
We have talked many times this election cycle about the surprising number of voters torn between Trump and Vermont’s socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders. While that split was helpful for Trump in neighboring New Hampshire and will be in Massachusetts today, it’s not likely to do much good for Trump in Sanders’ home state. The Green Mountains should fairly ring with the chants of “Feel the Bern!” That won’t leave many disaffected independents for Trump. But there still might be enough. The state’s Republicans tend to have a strong libertarian streak and are social moderates. While Rubio could be expected to do fine here, never count Trump out in the Northeast. The place to watch, not surprisingly, is Burlington’s county: Chittenden.

–16 delegates
–Three district delegates for the state’s single congressional district will be allocated proportionally if no candidate wins 50 percent, but candidates must win at least 20 percent of the vote statewide to receive any district delegates
–13 at-large delegates will be awarded proportionally to the candidates with a 20 percent threshold statewide
–Candidate with 50 percent statewide majority receives all delegates
–Open primary
–299,290 ballots cast in 2012
–Mitt Romney, 39 percent; Ron Paul, 25 percent; Rick Santorum, 24 percent; Newt Gingrich, 8 percent
–Polls close at 7 p.m. ET

Chittenden County:
–Population: 160,531
–Median household income: $63,989
–Unemployment: 4 percent
–Race: Caucasian, 91 percent; black, 2 percent
–Adults with bachelor’s degree: 47 percent
–Residents age 65 or older: 13 percent
–2012 general election: Obama 70 percent

[2012 Republican Primary: Mitt Romney, 41 percent; Ron Paul, 25 percent; Rick Santorum, 23 percent; Newt Gingrich, 7 percent]

Your Nevada Field Guide

The history of the Nevada Republican caucus is brief. The Silver State only joined the ranks of the early nominating contests in 2008. And because it is a caucus rather than a primary, voters have been slow to embrace Nevada’s new special status.

Due to the low turnout and the vagaries of the caucus system, you can go ahead and throw out pre-election polls. While Iowans know a thing or two about caucusing, Nevadans are just getting up to speed.

Democrats have more experience with the caucus system in Nevada, but even they proved the point about polling on Saturday when what was supposed to be a dead heat between Hillary Clinton and socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders turned out to be an easy win for the Democratic frontrunner.

Further confounding efforts to figure out what tonight’s results will be is the fact that in the two prior GOP caucuses, the Republican field included the perfect Nevada candidate: Mitt Romney. Mormon, moderate, and pro-business, Romney was a triple play with the state’s Republicans.

Who stands to inherent the quarter of the electorate that is expected to be Mormon? Romney claimed 88 percent of their votes last time. Where will the state’s substantial libertarian-leaning population end up? Rep. Ron Paul notched an impressive 19 percent of the vote here in 2012. Will evangelical Christians, a minority in the state GOP, turn out to vote, and if so, for whom?

With so many mysteries,  it’s time to go to the map.

Nevada Caucus:
–30 total delegates, proportionally allocated to candidates with more than 3.33 percent of the popular vote
–10 at-large delegates plus 3 automatic
–12 congressional district delegates, 3 from each of the 4 districts
–5 bonus delegates
–Closed caucus
–32,965 caucus participants in 2012
–Mitt Romney, 50 percent; Newt Gingrich, 21 percent; Ron Paul, 19 percent; Rick Santorum, 10 percent
–Caucus will take place between 8 p.m. and 11 p.m. ET

[Watch Fox: Megyn Kelly and Bret Baier bring you the latest as the results come in from Nevada at 11 p.m. ET]

VEGAS, BABY
More than two-thirds of Nevada’s population lives here in Clark County, and it accounted for a little more than half of the total Republican caucus turnout in 2012. Las Vegas and its sprawling desert suburbs aren’t all the marbles for this contest, but no one can win in the silver state without a strong showing here.

Once a booming place with endless real estate opportunities and a diversifying economy, the past ten years have been harder on Clark County than most places in the country. Foreclosures, setbacks for the gambling industry and a series of failed economic development projects left the county in a lurch.

Along the way, the county saw its politics shift from a Democratic tilt to a deep-blue hue.

Donald Trump ought to do well here, especially in Las Vegas, where he owns a hotel and finds an electorate more like the one who gave him his New Hampshire landslide: more secular, less conservative. The suburbs, though, are the biggest trove of votes and the least predictable given the nature of the three-man race on the GOP side.

In the bitter 2010 Senate primary in which rebel candidate Sharron Angle toppled the party favorite before going on to lose to the embattled Democratic Sen. Harry Reid, Angle won Clark County but only by about half of her margin statewide.

For Sen. Marco Rubio, holding Trump’s volume down with a strong showing in the suburbs will be key. This was Romney’s stronghold in 2012 and Rubio has to, ahem, bet on big turnout among more-affluent, better-educated suburbanites to pull off an upset.

Clark County
–Population: 2,069,681
–Median household income: $52,873
–Race: Caucasian, 45 percent; Hispanic or Latino, 30 percent
–Adults with bachelor’s degrees: 22 percent
–2012 election: Obama 56 percent
–Residents age 65 or older: 13 percent
–The first topless showgirls appeared on  Las Vegas in 1957

2012 Republican Caucus result: Mitt Romney, 57 percent; percent; Ron Paul, 19 percent; Newt Gingrich, 16; Rick Santorum, 7 percent

BIGGEST LITTLE SWING COUNTY IN THE WORLD
The northwestern corner of Nevada was once the GOP stronghold that delivered the state to the red team in eight of 10 presidential elections prior to 2008.

But an influx of Californians to the low-taxes and natural beauty of the region around Lake Tahoe and Reno has changed the character of the region and, by extension, the state. However, there are still lots of GOP caucus goers to be had here.

In 2012, 37 percent of GOP caucus turnout came from Washoe County, home to Reno, and the cluster of four small counties to its south that includes the state capital of Carson City.

Trump will have a built-in advantage given the large number of elderly voters here, but Washoe could also be hospitable territory for Ted Cruz. This was the part of the state that was most receptive to Newt Gingrich, Cruz’s 2012 doppelganger.

Rubio will have to find ways to cut into Cruz’s and Trump’s margins here, ideally finding a way to take a quarter of the vote or more.

Washoe County
–Population: 440,078
–Median household income: $53,040
–Race: Caucasian, 64 percent; Hispanic or Latino, 24 percent
–Adults with bachelor’s degrees: 27 percent
–2012 election: Obama 51 percent
–Residents age 65 or older: 15 percent
–In Reno, located within Washoe County, it is illegal to use profanity in front of a dead body.

2012 Republican Caucus result: Mitt Romney, 42 percent; Newt Gingrich, 28 percent; Ron Paul, 17 percent; Rick Santorum, 12 percent

Carson City County
–Population: 54,522
–Median household income: $51,957
–Race: Caucasian, 69 percent; Hispanic or Latino, 23 percent
–Adults with bachelor’s degrees: 20 percent
–2012 election: Romney 53 percent
–Residents age 65 or older: 19 percent
–The leader of the first group white men to survey the region was John C. Fremont in 1843.Twelve years later he would be the Republican Party’s first presidential nominee.

2012 Republican Caucus result: Mitt Romney, 38 percent; Newt Gingrich, 32 percent; Ron Paul, 15 percent; Rick Santorum, 14 percent